By Steve Chan
How are China's ongoing sovereignty disputes within the East and South China Seas more likely to evolve? Are kinfolk around the Taiwan Strait poised to go into a brand new interval of leisure or rigidity? How are fiscal interdependence, family public opinion, and the deterrence position performed by means of the U.S. more likely to impact China's kin with its opposite numbers in those disputes? even if territorial disputes were the prime reason for interstate wars some time past, China has settled so much of its land borders with its neighbours. Its maritime limitations, despite the fact that, have remained contentious. This booklet examines China's behavior in those maritime disputes with the intention to examine Beijing's international coverage intentions normally. instead of learning chinese language factors in isolation, Steve Chan makes use of fresh theoretical and empirical insights from diplomacy examine to examine China's administration of its maritime disputes.
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Extra resources for China’s Troubled Waters: Maritime Disputes in Theoretical Perspective
My seeming aggregation of “apples” and “oranges,” however, reﬂects an alternative rationale, one that attends more to interpretive logic than legal status. To the extent that nearly all states in fact view the Taiwan issue as China’s domestic matter and thus as qualitatively different from China’s other maritime disputes, this consensus implies that Beijing would be likely to face fewer adverse international repercussions if it were to undertake various coercive moves – including a resort to military invasion – in the former case than in the latter ones.
By recording only those occasions when people decide to engage each other, history presents a biased sample that excludes those encounters that could have happened but did not. To illustrate the analytic importance of this selection bias, consider the fact that most attempts at economic sanction have failed to achieve their declared purpose (Hufbauer et al. 1990; Pape 1997). Does this phenomenon mean that sanctions are ineffective? Not necessarily – because such a conclusion does not take into account those unobserved cases when the potential targets of sanction agreed to make the necessary concessions before sanctions had to be actually imposed (that is, their concessions had made the imposition of a sanction unnecessary; Drezner 1999).
They point to the “central tendencies” in interstate interactions, and thus offer a set of initial baseline expectations for thinking about China’s foreign relations in general and its territorial disputes more speciﬁcally. Chapter 3 turns to an attempt to explain bargaining failures, such as the impasse that has characterized relations across the Taiwan Strait. It draws particularly from James Fearon’s (1995) insights that seek to explain why wars happen even though the belligerents have a shared interest to avoid this costly undertaking.